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AUSTIN, TX–An analyst for Strafor Global
Intelligence has said that the continuing Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict can have global ramifications, regardless of the role
the regional powers play in the conflict resolution process or
in their positioning for regional dominance.
“Things could get out of hand, not because
Russia, Turkey or Iran want it to get out of hand, but because
simply the internal dynamics of the conflict between Armenia and
Azerbaijan take over and we have situation like in 1914 when a
local conflict in Bosnia created a global war,” said Strafor
analyst Marko Papic in a video interview obtained from the
organization’s Web site.
Warning that Russia, Turkey and Iran could
find themselves in a conflict that is out of their hands, Papic
said that Nagorno-Karabakh is a very important topic right now
because “the interplay of these major regional powers is going
to depend on what happens in Armenia and Azerbaijan.”
“Russian interests from start for this
particular conflict have been to really involve Turkey in an
intractable conflict that really cannot be solved. And this
really wastes Turkey’s time and energy in a region where Russia
feels very secure—it feels that its not going to lose any
leverage over either Armenia or Azerbaijan because of inroads
Turkey may make. Furthermore, Azerbaijan seems to slowly be
drifting toward Russia, as it feels spurned by Turkish
negotiations with Armenia,” added Papic.
Strafor Global Intelligence is an
international think-tank specializing in reports and analysis of
global issues and events.
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